永利棋牌

RCEP谈判增添变数, 中国如何应对新挑战?

综研观察

作者:张国平

永利棋牌时间:2019年11月21 14:49

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永利棋牌2018年中美爆发贸易摩擦,2019年7月日本和韩国之间又出现了贸易争端,这种双边负面博弈不仅伤害了双边利益,更破坏了国际自由贸易秩序。而在今年11月4日在泰国举办的RCEP首脑会议上,印度又突然宣布退出,导致参与国原本争取今年内16国整体谈妥未能实现。这一系列的消极信号的放出,会让更多投资者对世界市场失去信心,进而阻碍世界经济向好发展。中国应秉持开放包容的态度和原则,欢迎“印度准备好可以随时加入”;继续深化改革和开放市场力度,让各国参与到中国市场带来的巨大回报;并积极发挥好调节人的作用,协调各国经贸摩擦,为RCEP的达成贡献正面力量,也将对为全球贸易发展带来新动力。

一、RCEP具有经济体量大、包容性强、对发展中国家更为友好等特点。

永利棋牌一是体量大,影响力广泛。RCEP国家涵盖约35亿人口,GDP总和超过21万亿美元,约占全球经济总量的超3成,若达成,将成为世界最大的区域自由贸易协定。

永利棋牌二是RCEP准入门槛较低,对发展中国家更为友好。RCEP框架弥补了WTO中缺失或不足的方面,比如其协议该协定不仅涵盖货物贸易、争端解决、服务贸易、投资等议题,也涉及到知识产权、数字贸易、金融、电信等新议题,拥有更大的包容性,且计划大幅削减服务贸易领域的限制和歧视性措施,尤其是加入RCEP的发展中国家成员国可以为其日后加入更高程度的自贸协定做铺垫,也对促进成员国在全球化时代下的自由贸易发展具有重要意义。

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二、WTO改革尚未落地,RCEP将为全球贸易新发展带来重大机遇,尤其对中国意义重大。

永利棋牌一是由于大国单边主义等因素干扰,目前WTO常设的7名大法官仅剩3名,且其中1名的任期将于今年年底结束,国际自由贸易秩序受到严峻挑战,在WTO改革进程严重滞后全球经贸新格局的需求,RCEP谈判达成,或将为全球贸易发展带来新机遇。

永利棋牌二是加入RCEP在短期内会成为中国对冲中美贸易摩擦、稳定外贸发展的重要途径,在长期则担负起推动中国高水平开放、深度融入地区一体化的艰巨任务。

三、讲好中国自己的故事,与一带一路等战略产生协同效应。

进入协议区,中国将进一步扩大经贸领域的朋友圈,更为充分地发挥自身比较优势,为维护亚太地区的繁荣发展作出更大的贡献;同时,通过分享自身发展经验,讲好自己的故事,帮助RCEP成员国增强对自由贸易的信心,以及对一带一路等战略产生协同效应。

四、在谈判冲刺期,积极发挥“中国作用”。

目前,各方已就90%以上的协定文本达成一致,规则谈判已进入困难最集中的冲刺阶段。然而,中美贸易摩擦,日韩贸易摩擦以及印度因素等不断升温又为谈判提出了新挑战。在此背景下,中国应继续发挥大国作用,在尊重东盟主导地位的同时,推动谈判国家采取更加主动和务实的策略,促进RCEP谈判在的顺利收尾。

一是,中国秉持开放包容的态度和原则。印度当局对国内产业竞争力的不自信和对潜在的进口负面冲击的担忧较为强烈。实际上,印度是发起对华反倾销数目最多的国家,为保护本国市场,印度长期以来建立了一套纷繁复杂的非关税保护体系,对中国产品进入印度市场打击力度严酷;我国应该秉持“RCEP15国可以“先往前走”,但协定将保持开放的原则“,且”印度准备好可以随时加入”。这体现了中国政府在对外合作领域一直秉承的开放包容姿态,也体现了中国政府坚持多边主义、坚持贸易自由化决心与勇气。

二是,中国继续深化改革和开放市场力度。针对东南亚部分国家担心RCEP达成后中国出口商品将冲击本国市场,中国应继续深化改革开放,向RCEP国家的企业和投资者展现中国市场的巨大潜力,鼓励这些国家来华投资,减小RCEP谈判阻力。2019年11月第二届进博会的举办,也充分让参会的各国厂商体会到了深耕中国市场带来的巨大回报,展现了中国已经成为我们全球最大的市场的巨大信心。且随着产业升级和技术创新,中国市场的消费潜力将进一步被激发,2019年最新出台的《外商投资法》将在2020年产生效力,届时外商在华投资和经营将更加安全和便利。

永利棋牌三是,积极发挥调节人的作用。面对短期日本和韩国经贸摩擦没有趋缓的形势,我国如若抓住机会,在尊重东盟主导地位的同时,继续发挥大国的调解人作用,主动推动谈判国家采取更加主动和务实的策略,可将危机转为机遇,促成谈判的尽快达成,且为未来中日韩自贸区或中印贸易协定的谈判创造更好的基础。

五、结语

在全球化时代,秉持开放包容的精神,RCEP成员国以建设性的态度参与谈判,推动区域一体化,才能更好应对逆全球化和贸易保护主义的多重挑战,作为全球经济体量最大的区域自贸协定,RCEP的达成,RCEP的达成将为所参与国家提供了一个多边合作平台,为各国经贸提供了解决问题的一条新途径,将推进亚太地区实现深度合作,也将对为全球贸易发展带来新动力。

CHINADAILY“World Watch”11月19日刊发本文

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RCEP can give boost to international trade

India's sudden withdrawal has hit negotiations involving 16 countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership treaty, which is expected to conclude this year. The RCEP is a proposed free trade agreement between the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and six states with which ASEAN has FTAs.

China needs to remain open to welcoming India to join the RCEP whenever it is ready, deepen reform and opening-up to benefit countries entering the Chinese market, and mediate among different countries to ease trade frictions to contribute to the conclusion of RCEP negotiations, which can inject fresh impetus to global trade.

永利棋牌With a population of about 3.5 billion, this trading bloc has a total gross domestic product of more than $21 trillion, accounting for more than 30 percent of global trade. If the RCEP is finalized, it will be the world's largest regional FTA.

The RCEP is more accessible to developing nations. Its framework complements the World Trade Organization by covering traditional issues such as goods trade, dispute settlement and service trade as well as new ones, including investment intellectual property, digital trade, and finance and telecommunication.

It plans to cut restrictions and discriminatory measures especially in the field of service trade. The RCEP can lay the foundation for developing countries participating in the treaty to get involved in higher FTA levels in the future, which is significant for promoting free trade between member countries in the era of globalization.

Since WTO reforms have not yet been launched, the RCEP will offer great opportunities for global trade, especially for China. Due to factors such as the unilateralism of some major countries, the number of permanent WTO judges has come down from seven to three, with the tenure of one of them concluding by the end of this year.

Participation in the RCEP will be an important approach for China to cope with Sino-US trade frictions and stabilize its foreign trade growth in the short term. In the long term, it is expected to promote China's high-level opening-up and further its participation in regional integration.

China will further expand its economic and trade partners among the RCEP member countries and make greater contributions for maintaining the prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region.

永利棋牌It will also share its experiences and help RCEP member countries enhance confidence in free trade and combine the RCEP framework with the Belt and Road Initiative to produce joint results.

At present, all parties have reached consensus on more than 90 percent of the agreement text. However, the China-United States and Japan-Republic of Korea trade frictions, and India's withdrawal, continue to pose challenges.

永利棋牌India has concerns about the potential negative impact of imports and lacks confidence in the competitiveness of the domestic industry. It has filed many anti-dumping cases against China, and has established a complicated non-tariff system to protect the domestic market.

永利棋牌In this regard, China first needs to promote to the member countries to adopt more proactive and pragmatic strategies toward the conclusion of negotiations while respecting ASEAN's dominant role.

China needs to uphold the principle that the 15 RCEP countries can go ahead with the agreement that is open to India, which reflects China's openness toward foreign cooperation as well as its determination to adhere to multilateralism and trade liberalization.

永利棋牌Second, some Southeast Asian countries are concerned that domestic markets may bear the brunt of China's exports once the RCEP treaty is concluded. China needs to further reform and open up, show the huge potential of the Chinese market to enterprises and investors of other countries participating in the RCEP, and encourage countries to invest in China and facilitate RCEP negotiations.

The second China International Import Expo recently held in Shanghai allowed foreign enterprises to see the great returns of tapping into the Chinese market and demonstrated China's confidence as the world's largest market. The Foreign Investment Law will come into effect in 2020, when foreign investment and business activities in China will be more secure.

Third, China needs to further play its role as a mediator. Since Japan-ROK economic and trade frictions are showing no signs of easing in the short term, China needs to respect the dominant role of ASEAN while continuing to mediate between countries as a major power and promoting countries participating in RCEP negotiations to adopt more proactive pragmatic strategies, which can turn risks into opportunities, and lay the foundation for future negotiations for the China-Japan-ROK Free Trade Zone and the China-India trade agreement.

永利棋牌In the era of globalization, RCEP member countries need to remain open and inclusive, participate in negotiations proactively and promote regional integration to better cope with challenges caused by anti-globalization and trade protectionism.

永利棋牌As the world's largest regional agreement, the RCEP will serve as a multilateral cooperation platform for member countries, provide a new approach for countries to address problems, advance cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region and give new impetus to global trade.

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